Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 13¢ · $643 held · ends Nov 3

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$642.83

Combined PnL

$64.33

Smart Money Entry

6.5¢ → 12.8¢

+97% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$283.42

Total Shares310

Combined PnL+$16.85

Yes2 traders

Total Value$359.41

Total Shares5,177

Combined PnL+$47.49

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 91¢	$252.56	$254.08	+$1.52	61% 20945-13330 (34275)
DD dddtripsCTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$273.4	$248.65	-$24.75	38% 598-969 (1567)
BI bipbipbopCTR	Yesavg 7.2¢	$162.56	$110.76	+$72.23	64% 2370-1317 (3687)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 87.4¢	$192.92	$29.34	+$15.32	36% 15264-27350 (42614)

balthazar

Invested

$252.56

Value

$254.08

PnL

+$1.52

Record

61%

20945-13330 (34275)

dddtripsCTR

Yes

Invested

$273.4

Value

$248.65

PnL

-$24.75

Record

38%

598-969 (1567)

bipbipbopCTR

Yes

Invested

$162.56

Value

$110.76

PnL

+$72.23

Record

64%

2370-1317 (3687)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$192.92

Value

$29.34

PnL

+$15.32

Record

36%

15264-27350 (42614)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.4%

12.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$592.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

692.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.