Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 13¢ · $262 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$261.78
$21.71
12¢ → 12.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $174.97 | $197.23 | +$22.26 | 38% 597-959 (1556) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $26.4 | $25.95 | -$0.45 | 61% 20522-12983 (33505) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $13.5 | $12.98 | -$0.53 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $11.34 | $11.42 | +$0.08 | 44% 1797-2245 (4042) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $8.08 | $8.39 | +$0.31 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $5.78 | $5.82 | +$0.03 | 77% 11074-3382 (14456) |
Invested
$174.97
Value
$197.23
PnL
+$22.26
Record
38%
597-959 (1556)
balthazar<$100Invested
$26.4
Value
$25.95
PnL
-$0.45
Record
61%
20522-12983 (33505)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$12.98
PnL
-$0.53
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
Invested
$11.34
Value
$11.42
PnL
+$0.08
Record
44%
1797-2245 (4042)
Invested
$8.08
Value
$8.39
PnL
+$0.31
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
Invested
$5.78
Value
$5.82
PnL
+$0.03
Record
77%
11074-3382 (14456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.