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balthazar<$100NoYesYesYesNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 75%
Total Value
$90
Combined PnL
-$51.84
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$90
Total Shares90
Combined PnL-$44.58
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares135
Combined PnL-$7.27
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $89.98 | $90 | -$44.98 | 61% 20733-13148 (33881) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$4.15 | 46% 2742-3278 (6020) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.06 | — | -$0.06 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.02 | — | -$0.02 | 32% 4342-9342 (13684) |
BI bipbipbop<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $99.5 | — | +$0.4 | 64% 2363-1316 (3679) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $3.03 | — | -$3.03 | 36% 14901-27010 (41911) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$89.98
Value
$90
PnL
-$44.98
Record
61%
20733-13148 (33881)
BI
BiggggggggCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$4.15
Record
46%
2742-3278 (6020)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
—
PnL
-$0.06
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
—
PnL
-$0.02
Record
32%
4342-9342 (13684)
BI
bipbipbop<$100Invested
$99.5
Value
—
PnL
+$0.4
Record
64%
2363-1316 (3679)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$3.03
Value
—
PnL
-$3.03
Record
36%
14901-27010 (41911)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x219e0196...adca84
Slug
elon-musk-of-tweets-october-26-october-28-2026-190-214