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balthazarNoNoNoYesYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 50%
Total Value
$554.56
Combined PnL
-$161.41
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$554.56
Total Shares555
Combined PnL-$157.07
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares166
Combined PnL-$4.33
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $280.72 | $281.55 | -$139.95 | 61% 20733-13148 (33881) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.9¢ | $272.73 | $273 | -$3.38 | 46% 2742-3278 (6020) |
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.9K | $0.02 | -$13.74 | 64% 2363-1316 (3679) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.24 | — | -$0.24 | 32% 4342-9342 (13684) |
EL ElonSimpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $1.33 | — | -$0.89 | 34% 200-395 (595) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $23.25 | — | -$3.2 | 36% 14901-27010 (41911) |
balthazarInvested
$280.72
Value
$281.55
PnL
-$139.95
Record
61%
20733-13148 (33881)
BI
BiggggggggInvested
$272.73
Value
$273
PnL
-$3.38
Record
46%
2742-3278 (6020)
BI
bipbipbopInvested
$1,930.63
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$13.74
Record
64%
2363-1316 (3679)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
—
PnL
-$0.24
Record
32%
4342-9342 (13684)
EL
ElonSimpCTR<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
—
PnL
-$0.89
Record
34%
200-395 (595)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$23.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.2
Record
36%
14901-27010 (41911)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3da12c22...241304
Slug
elon-musk-of-tweets-october-26-october-28-2026-165-189