Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
Resolved No. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Yes 100%
$0
-$45.03
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $38.64 | — | -$38.64 | — |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $4.13 | — | -$4.13 | 31% 283-634 (917) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $2.18 | — | -$2.18 | 32% 330-702 (1032) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.08 | — | -$0.08 | — |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20996-13355 (34351) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 336-705 (1041) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 29% 181-444 (625) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 32% 314-675 (989) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13613-10430 (24043) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15340-27420 (42760) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3796-17193 (20989) |
Invested
$38.64
Value
—
PnL
-$38.64
Record
—
Invested
$4.13
Value
—
PnL
-$4.13
Record
31%
283-634 (917)
Invested
$2.18
Value
—
PnL
-$2.18
Record
32%
330-702 (1032)
Invested
$0.08
Value
—
PnL
-$0.08
Record
—
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20996-13355 (34351)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
336-705 (1041)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
181-444 (625)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
314-675 (989)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13613-10430 (24043)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15340-27420 (42760)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3796-17193 (20989)
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