Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Yes 100%
$0
-$40.58
Smart Money Signal
6 of 14 top traders (43%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $38.64 | — | -$38.64 | — |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.94 | — | -$1.94 | 31% 283-634 (917) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 46% 2770-3315 (6085) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20996-13355 (34351) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 3440-3731 (7171) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 330-702 (1032) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 336-705 (1041) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 29% 181-444 (625) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 32% 314-675 (989) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13613-10430 (24043) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4410-9476 (13886) |
BI bipbipbop<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 2376-1317 (3693) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15340-27420 (42760) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3796-17193 (20989) |
Invested
$38.64
Value
—
PnL
-$38.64
Record
—
Invested
$1.94
Value
—
PnL
-$1.94
Record
31%
283-634 (917)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2770-3315 (6085)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20996-13355 (34351)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
3440-3731 (7171)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
330-702 (1032)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
336-705 (1041)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
181-444 (625)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
314-675 (989)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13613-10430 (24043)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4410-9476 (13886)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
2376-1317 (3693)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15340-27420 (42760)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3796-17193 (20989)
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