Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$3.87

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,963

Combined PnL+$8.04

Yes3 traders

Total Value$48.79

Total Shares4,574

Combined PnL-$11.91

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 97.1¢	$7.0K	$3.0K	+$8.04	64% 2368-1317 (3685)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.33	$33.33	+$12.25	19% 526-2289 (2815)
EL ElonSimpCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$54.83	$14.84	-$24.29	34% 201-398 (599)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.48	$0.61	+$0.14	61% 20778-13190 (33968)

bipbipbop

Invested

$6,985.06

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$8.04

Record

64%

2368-1317 (3685)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.33

Value

$33.33

PnL

+$12.25

Record

19%

526-2289 (2815)

ElonSimpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.83

Value

$14.84

PnL

-$24.29

Record

34%

201-398 (599)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.14

Record

61%

20778-13190 (33968)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.