Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 20¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$266.64
12.9¢ → 20.4¢
+59% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbopARB<$100 | Noavg 84.3¢ | $2.5K | $1.2K | +$54.86 | 64% 2331-1309 (3640) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.3¢ | $1.0K | $950.28 | -$78.53 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $189.03 | $265.37 | +$133.39 | |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $548.36 | $779.91 | +$209.6 | 38% 597-959 (1556) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $8.76 | $66.34 | +$52.9 | 18% 3771-16775 (20546) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $13.99 | $10.06 | -$1.43 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $44.74 | $7.49 | +$5.57 | 53% 6241-5478 (11719) |
Invested
$2,489.07
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$54.86
Record
64%
2331-1309 (3640)
Both legs:
Invested
$548.36
Value
$779.91
PnL
+$209.6
Record
38%
597-959 (1556)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$8.76
Value
$66.34
PnL
+$52.9
Record
18%
3771-16775 (20546)
Invested
$13.99
Value
$10.06
PnL
-$1.43
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
Invested
$44.74
Value
$7.49
PnL
+$5.57
Record
53%
6241-5478 (11719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.