Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.87
-$16.42
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
183h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $11.3 | $1.76 | -$9.53 | 19% 526-2184 (2710) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.75 | $0.03 | -$1.72 | 31% 251-564 (815) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.75 | $0.03 | -$1.72 | 32% 303-642 (945) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.75 | $0.03 | -$1.72 | 32% 304-636 (940) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.75 | $0.03 | -$1.72 | 31% 279-608 (887) |
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$11.3
Value
$1.76
PnL
-$9.53
Record
19%
526-2184 (2710)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.72
Record
31%
251-564 (815)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.72
Record
32%
303-642 (945)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.72
Record
32%
304-636 (940)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.72
Record
31%
279-608 (887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.