Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$1.75

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,278

Combined PnL+$24.79

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.04

Total Shares89

Combined PnL-$23.05

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON onekey02	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$1.41	— 6-1 (7)
Lucerys	Noavg 98.8¢	$604.59	$611.93	+$7.34	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.6¢	$280.91	$281.86	+$0.95	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 98¢	$153.16	$156.2	+$3.05	— 6-0 (6)
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$119.4	$119.94	+$0.54	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$61.67	$68.16	+$6.48	29% 882-2138 (3020)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$61.34	$62	+$0.66	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$52.51	$55.55	+$3.04	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$52.36	$52.49	+$0.13	49% 89-93 (182)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$84.43	$46.23	+$1.18	54% 562-474 (1036)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.86	$10.87	+$0.02	28% 522-1370 (1892)
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$34.22	$0.04	-$23.05	8% 9-104 (113)

onekey02

Invested

$2,809.72

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.41

Record

—

6-1 (7)

Lucerys

Invested

$604.59

Value

$611.93

PnL

+$7.34

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$280.91

Value

$281.86

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

nonkenny90

Invested

$153.16

Value

$156.2

PnL

+$3.05

Record

—

6-0 (6)

balthazar

Invested

$119.4

Value

$119.94

PnL

+$0.54

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$61.67

Value

$68.16

PnL

+$6.48

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$61.34

Value

$62

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$52.51

Value

$55.55

PnL

+$3.04

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$52.36

Value

$52.49

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

89-93 (182)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$84.43

Value

$46.23

PnL

+$1.18

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$10.86

Value

$10.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

quiet-ferretCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.22

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$23.05

Record

9-104 (113)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.