Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $6 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.51

Combined PnL

-$380.1

Smart Money Entry

3.3¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$5.51

Total Shares11,013

Combined PnL-$380.1

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ElonSpamCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$247.95	$3.72	-$244.24	50% 20-20 (40)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$226.34	$0.6	-$50.42	37% 3456-5935 (9391)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$24.03	$0.36	-$23.67	52% 1614-1485 (3099)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$16.36	$0.18	-$16.05	27% 948-2550 (3498)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$10.66	$0.16	-$10.5	47% 4815-5470 (10285)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$9.63	$0.13	-$9.48	30% 2950-6939 (9889)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$6.28	$0.09	-$6.18	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$5.94	$0.09	-$5.85	53% 6070-5437 (11507)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$17.61	$0.08	-$5.36	19% 816-3584 (4400)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$3.23	$0.05	-$3.18	37% 65-110 (175)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$2.47	$0.02	-$2.41	0% 0-26 (26)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$2.82	$0.02	-$2.75	11% 6-50 (56)

ElonSpamCTR

Yes

Invested

$247.95

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$244.24

Record

50%

20-20 (40)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$226.34

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$50.42

Record

37%

3456-5935 (9391)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.03

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$23.67

Record

52%

1614-1485 (3099)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.36

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$16.05

Record

27%

948-2550 (3498)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.66

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$10.5

Record

47%

4815-5470 (10285)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.63

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$9.48

Record

30%

2950-6939 (9889)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.28

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$6.18

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.94

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$5.85

Record

53%

6070-5437 (11507)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.61

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$5.36

Record

19%

816-3584 (4400)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$3.18

Record

37%

65-110 (175)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.47

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.41

Record

0-26 (26)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.75

Record

11%

6-50 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.