Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $342 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$342.46
-$0.1
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $225.08 | $225.32 | +$0.25 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $55.94 | $55.94 | +$0 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $30.82 | $30.85 | +$0.03 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.75 | $0.38 | -$0.38 | — 0-9 (9) |
LucerysInvested
$225.08
Value
$225.32
PnL
+$0.25
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$55.94
Value
$55.94
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$30.82
Value
$30.85
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.38
Record
—
0-9 (9)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.