Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$4.3

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,092

Combined PnL+$0.97

Yes1 trader

Total Value$11.11

Total Shares5,555

Combined PnL+$3.33

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.8¢	$617.2	$617.73	+$0.53	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.8¢	$134.7	$134.8	+$0.1	27% 936-2514 (3450)
PO pollo07	Noavg 99.8¢	$116.88	$116.99	+$0.11	27% 499-1317 (1816)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.7¢	$108.85	$109.02	+$0.16	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$91.78	$91.82	+$0.05	28% 521-1360 (1881)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.97	+$0.01	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$7.78	$11.11	+$3.33	— 0-9 (9)

Lucerys

Invested

$617.2

Value

$617.73

PnL

+$0.53

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

northdrawer

Invested

$134.7

Value

$134.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

pollo07

Invested

$116.88

Value

$116.99

PnL

+$0.11

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

cigarettes

Invested

$108.85

Value

$109.02

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

akroll<$100

Invested

$91.78

Value

$91.82

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.78

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$3.33

Record

—

0-9 (9)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.