Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 89%
$1.2K
$3.64
99.7¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $616.59 | $617.73 | +$1.14 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.7¢ | $134.6 | $134.8 | +$0.2 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.6¢ | $128.68 | $128.99 | +$0.3 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $116.82 | $116.99 | +$0.18 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $99.7 | $99.85 | +$0.15 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $91.68 | $91.82 | +$0.14 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.97 | +$0.03 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5.36 | $5.38 | +$0.02 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.93 | $2.78 | +$1.47 | — 0-9 (9) |
LucerysInvested
$616.59
Value
$617.73
PnL
+$1.14
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$134.6
Value
$134.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$128.68
Value
$128.99
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$116.82
Value
$116.99
PnL
+$0.18
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
balthazar<$100Invested
$99.7
Value
$99.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$91.68
Value
$91.82
PnL
+$0.14
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$5.36
Value
$5.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$1.93
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$1.47
Record
—
0-9 (9)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.