Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$2.28

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,232

Combined PnL+$3.27

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.44

Total Shares2,222

Combined PnL-$5.55

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.6¢	$615.95	$617.73	+$1.78	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.4¢	$148.25	$148.96	+$0.71	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.7¢	$134.57	$134.8	+$0.23	27% 936-2514 (3450)
PO pollo07	Noavg 99.7¢	$116.76	$116.99	+$0.23	27% 499-1317 (1816)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$99.7	$99.85	+$0.15	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$91.68	$91.82	+$0.14	28% 521-1360 (1881)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.97	+$0.03	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$10	$4.44	-$5.55	— 0-9 (9)

Lucerys

Invested

$615.95

Value

$617.73

PnL

+$1.78

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

cigarettes

Invested

$148.25

Value

$148.96

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

northdrawer

Invested

$134.57

Value

$134.8

PnL

+$0.23

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

pollo07

Invested

$116.76

Value

$116.99

PnL

+$0.23

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$99.7

Value

$99.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

akroll<$100

Invested

$91.68

Value

$91.82

PnL

+$0.14

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$5.55

Record

—

0-9 (9)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.