Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
11
No 91%
$1.5K
$8.38
97.2¢ → 99.2¢
+2% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 98¢ | $606.15 | $612.46 | +$6.33 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 89.9¢ | $154.53 | $151.51 | +$0.03 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.1¢ | $144.88 | $147.69 | +$2.8 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $115.36 | $116 | +$0.64 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 98.6¢ | $107.47 | $107.91 | +$0.44 | 53% 1609-1415 (3024) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $98.42 | $98.76 | +$0.34 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $96.2 | $96.59 | +$0.82 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $73.95 | $74.25 | +$0.3 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $58.98 | $59.4 | +$0.42 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $19.72 | $19.8 | +$0.08 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $14.27 | $9.91 | -$3.81 | 8% 9-104 (113) |
LucerysInvested
$606.15
Value
$612.46
PnL
+$6.33
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$154.53
Value
$151.51
PnL
+$0.03
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$144.88
Value
$147.69
PnL
+$2.8
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$115.36
Value
$116
PnL
+$0.64
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$107.47
Value
$107.91
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
1609-1415 (3024)
balthazar<$100Invested
$98.42
Value
$98.76
PnL
+$0.34
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$96.2
Value
$96.59
PnL
+$0.82
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$73.95
Value
$74.25
PnL
+$0.3
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$58.98
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$0.42
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$19.72
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$14.27
Value
$9.91
PnL
-$3.81
Record
8%
9-104 (113)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.