Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $693 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$692.64

Combined PnL

-$5.77

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$689.86

Total Shares690

Combined PnL+$0.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.78

Total Shares5,560

Combined PnL-$6.12

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$411.68	$411.87	+$0.21	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$91.87	$91.91	+$0.05	28% 521-1360 (1881)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.96	+$0.04	27% 104-283 (387)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$61.11	$61.14	+$0.03	27% 499-1317 (1816)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.99	+$0.02	24% 77-243 (320)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.99	+$0.01	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$8.89	$2.78	-$6.11	— 0-9 (9)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.09	$0	-$0.01	54% 563-474 (1037)

Lucerys

Invested

$411.68

Value

$411.87

PnL

+$0.21

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

akroll<$100

Invested

$91.87

Value

$91.91

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$61.11

Value

$61.14

PnL

+$0.03

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$6.11

Record

—

0-9 (9)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

563-474 (1037)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.