Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 34¢ · $645 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
11
Yes 55%
$644.73
$126.04
20.1¢ → 34¢
+69% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 34%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL ElonSimpCTR | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $309.91 | $291.99 | +$108.49 | 31% 227-507 (734) |
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 78.6¢ | $106.95 | $103 | -$3.95 | 19% 2910-12341 (15251) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $92.8 | $86 | -$6.8 | 32% 3287-7146 (10433) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 67.9¢ | $107.79 | $54.1 | +$11.96 | 58% 21353-15491 (36844) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $37.27 | $34.25 | -$3.02 | 27% 610-1662 (2272) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 76.4¢ | $87.49 | $23.85 | -$1.97 | 34% 19370-36924 (56294) |
 Kamenshyk22CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $11 | $17 | +$6 | 18% 396-1797 (2193) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $5.1 | $12.6 | +$7.5 | 42% 2367-3241 (5608) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $8.74 | $9.36 | +$0.62 | 53% 23789-20956 (44745) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $11.16 | $7.65 | +$5.63 | 28% 2872-7382 (10254) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $3.36 | $4.94 | +$1.57 | 26% 7355-21119 (28474) |
Invested
$309.91
Value
$291.99
PnL
+$108.49
Record
31%
227-507 (734)
LornaPredictsInvested
$106.95
Value
$103
PnL
-$3.95
Record
19%
2910-12341 (15251)
Invested
$92.8
Value
$86
PnL
-$6.8
Record
32%
3287-7146 (10433)
Invested
$107.79
Value
$54.1
PnL
+$11.96
Record
58%
21353-15491 (36844)
Invested
$37.27
Value
$34.25
PnL
-$3.02
Record
27%
610-1662 (2272)
Invested
$87.49
Value
$23.85
PnL
-$1.97
Record
34%
19370-36924 (56294)
Kamenshyk22CTR<$100Invested
$11
Value
$17
PnL
+$6
Record
18%
396-1797 (2193)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$7.5
Record
42%
2367-3241 (5608)
Invested
$8.74
Value
$9.36
PnL
+$0.62
Record
53%
23789-20956 (44745)
Invested
$11.16
Value
$7.65
PnL
+$5.63
Record
28%
2872-7382 (10254)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$1.57
Record
26%
7355-21119 (28474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.