Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 7.1¢ · $563 held · ends Nov 7

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$563.1

Combined PnL

$141.15

Smart Money Entry

8¢ → 7.1¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$243.06

Total Shares2,694

Combined PnL+$101.41

No5 traders

Total Value$320.03

Total Shares345

Combined PnL+$39.74

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XZ xzsaCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$89.64	$110.06	+$20.42	8% 4-44 (48)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 88.8¢	$109.6	$96.2	-$3.4	53% 23842-20976 (44818)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 95.3¢	$164.5	$95.9	-$2.28	32% 3291-7156 (10447)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 90.1¢	$344.41	$94.83	+$5.95	58% 21422-15550 (36972)
EL ElonSimpCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$165.99	$55.13	+$37.16	31% 228-509 (737)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$35.27	$38.47	+$83.25	19% 2922-12389 (15311)
Kamenshyk22CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$38.82	$19.64	-$7.32	18% 396-1805 (2201)
balthazar	Noavg 92¢	$185.76	$18.65	+$40.15	52% 31079-29042 (60121)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$166.24	$17.59	-$33.58	53% 8627-7719 (16346)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$15.13	$14.46	-$0.67	34% 19439-36995 (56434)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.68	$2.16	+$1.48	26% 7367-21150 (28517)

xzsaCTR

Yes

Invested

$89.64

Value

$110.06

PnL

+$20.42

Record

4-44 (48)

cigarettes

Invested

$109.6

Value

$96.2

PnL

-$3.4

Record

53%

23842-20976 (44818)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$164.5

Value

$95.9

PnL

-$2.28

Record

32%

3291-7156 (10447)

ghorrock

Invested

$344.41

Value

$94.83

PnL

+$5.95

Record

58%

21422-15550 (36972)

ElonSimpCTR

Yes

Invested

$165.99

Value

$55.13

PnL

+$37.16

Record

31%

228-509 (737)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.27

Value

$38.47

PnL

+$83.25

Record

19%

2922-12389 (15311)

Kamenshyk22CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.82

Value

$19.64

PnL

-$7.32

Record

18%

396-1805 (2201)

balthazar

Invested

$185.76

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$40.15

Record

52%

31079-29042 (60121)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$166.24

Value

$17.59

PnL

-$33.58

Record

53%

8627-7719 (16346)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$15.13

Value

$14.46

PnL

-$0.67

Record

34%

19439-36995 (56434)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$1.48

Record

26%

7367-21150 (28517)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.5%

7.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1073.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

1173.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.