Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$4.1

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 87.9¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,730

Combined PnL-$8.3

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.12

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$12.4

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 88.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$14.09	15% 498-2922 (3420)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$92.97	$89.87	-$3.1	42% 3173-4329 (7502)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$87.6	$87.25	-$0.35	41% 6281-9214 (15495)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$90.08	$72.51	-$2.49	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$65.74	$65.44	-$0.31	50% 9812-9798 (19610)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$50.79	$50.61	-$0.18	26% 506-1406 (1912)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$26.22	$40.75	+$14.53	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$39.07	$37.82	-$1.25	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 88.8¢	$115.33	$34.85	-$2.13	17% 1254-6014 (7268)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$26.07	$26.18	+$0.11	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$17.54	$17.46	-$0.08	47% 8377-9565 (17942)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$17.56	$17.45	-$0.11	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$49.56	$11.56	+$12.01	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$8.91	$8.73	-$0.18	77% 12390-3803 (16193)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$16.96	$8.24	+$1.35	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$2.55	$2.56	+$0.4	35% 18318-34086 (52404)

Istaroth

Invested

$1,117.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$14.09

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$92.97

Value

$89.87

PnL

-$3.1

Record

42%

3173-4329 (7502)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$87.6

Value

$87.25

PnL

-$0.35

Record

41%

6281-9214 (15495)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$90.08

Value

$72.51

PnL

-$2.49

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$65.74

Value

$65.44

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

9812-9798 (19610)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$50.79

Value

$50.61

PnL

-$0.18

Record

26%

506-1406 (1912)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$26.22

Value

$40.75

PnL

+$14.53

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$39.07

Value

$37.82

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

WarriorH

Invested

$115.33

Value

$34.85

PnL

-$2.13

Record

17%

1254-6014 (7268)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$26.07

Value

$26.18

PnL

+$0.11

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$17.54

Value

$17.46

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

8377-9565 (17942)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.56

Value

$17.45

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.56

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$12.01

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$8.73

PnL

-$0.18

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.96

Value

$8.24

PnL

+$1.35

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.4

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.4%

87.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.