Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 10

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$198.3

Combined PnL

$21.04

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 94.8¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$170.14

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$7.23

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.15

Total Shares599

Combined PnL+$13.81

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock	Noavg 97.6¢	$340.8	$94.15	-$5.01	58% 21162-15379 (36541)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$66.52	$62.34	+$0.95	34% 19149-36800 (55949)
ElonSpamCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$7.37	$14.24	+$6.87	40% 1554-2345 (3899)
balthazar	Noavg 98.5¢	$141.24	$13.65	+$11.29	52% 30802-28940 (59742)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$5.76	$12.03	+$6.27	17% 4495-21985 (26480)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$1.21	$1.88	+$0.67	42% 2316-3134 (5450)

ghorrock

Invested

$340.8

Value

$94.15

PnL

-$5.01

Record

58%

21162-15379 (36541)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$66.52

Value

$62.34

PnL

+$0.95

Record

34%

19149-36800 (55949)

ElonSpamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.37

Value

$14.24

PnL

+$6.87

Record

40%

1554-2345 (3899)

balthazar

Invested

$141.24

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$11.29

Record

52%

30802-28940 (59742)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$12.03

PnL

+$6.27

Record

17%

4495-21985 (26480)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.67

Record

42%

2316-3134 (5450)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.