Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $885 held · ends Nov 10

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$884.92

Combined PnL

$14.3

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 99¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$871.6

Total Shares877

Combined PnL+$15.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$13.32

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL-$1.5

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77	Noavg 99.3¢	$302	$302.06	+$0.06	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
GO god83743894	Noavg 92.2¢	$207.32	$223.38	+$16.06	46% 10394-12106 (22500)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.6¢	$134.41	$134.14	-$0.27	47% 8497-9689 (18186)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99¢	$80.38	$51.39	-$0.11	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$50.47	$50.44	-$0.03	43% 3222-4252 (7474)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$49.32	$49.44	+$0.12	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
balthazar	Noavg 99.3¢	$143.42	$20.99	+$0.02	53% 29736-26607 (56343)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.89	$19.87	-$0.01	61% 15003-9455 (24458)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.87	-$0.03	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$4.44	$11.67	+$2.22	18% 536-2517 (3053)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$4.38	$1.47	-$2.91	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$30	$0.18	-$0.82	44% 2229-2873 (5102)

korda77

Invested

$302

Value

$302.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

god83743894

Invested

$207.32

Value

$223.38

PnL

+$16.06

Record

46%

10394-12106 (22500)

mildwindow27

Invested

$134.41

Value

$134.14

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$80.38

Value

$51.39

PnL

-$0.11

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

merod<$100

Invested

$50.47

Value

$50.44

PnL

-$0.03

Record

43%

3222-4252 (7474)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$49.32

Value

$49.44

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

balthazar

Invested

$143.42

Value

$20.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

29736-26607 (56343)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$19.89

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$0.01

Record

61%

15003-9455 (24458)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.44

Value

$11.67

PnL

+$2.22

Record

18%

536-2517 (3053)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.38

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$2.91

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.82

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.