Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 1.3¢ · $63 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$62.71
-$20.28
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
44h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $26.09 | $25.06 | +$0.2 | 58% 21295-15456 (36751) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $3.33 | $16.67 | +$12.78 | 16% 537-2794 (3331) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $92.93 | $13.26 | -$22.91 | 52% 30969-28992 (59961) |
 ElonSpamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $10.78 | $4.55 | -$6.77 | 40% 1555-2349 (3904) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $5.34 | $2.58 | -$2.76 | 17% 4501-22036 (26537) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $1.41 | $0.6 | -$0.81 | 42% 2356-3223 (5579) |
Invested
$26.09
Value
$25.06
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
21295-15456 (36751)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$3.33
Value
$16.67
PnL
+$12.78
Record
16%
537-2794 (3331)
balthazar<$100Invested
$92.93
Value
$13.26
PnL
-$22.91
Record
52%
30969-28992 (59961)
ElonSpamCTR<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$6.77
Record
40%
1555-2349 (3904)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.34
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$2.76
Record
17%
4501-22036 (26537)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.81
Record
42%
2356-3223 (5579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.