Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $886 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$885.72

Combined PnL

-$3.96

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$883.6

Total Shares885

Combined PnL+$0.44

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.12

Total Shares931

Combined PnL-$4.4

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KO korda77	Noavg 99.9¢	$303.7	$303.69	-$0.02	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.7¢	$224.18	$224.59	+$0.4	46% 10394-12106 (22500)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.9¢	$174.99	$175.01	+$0.03	47% 8497-9689 (18186)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$50.71	$50.71	-$0	43% 3222-4252 (7474)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.71	$49.71	-$0	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	-$0	42% 7143-9968 (17111)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$30	$29.94	+$0.02	53% 29736-26607 (56343)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.98	+$0.02	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.62	$1.24	+$0.62	18% 536-2517 (3053)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$4.57	$0.7	-$3.86	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.92	$0.12	-$0.22	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$30	$0.06	-$0.94	44% 2229-2873 (5102)

korda77

Invested

$303.7

Value

$303.69

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

god83743894

Invested

$224.18

Value

$224.59

PnL

+$0.4

Record

46%

10394-12106 (22500)

mildwindow27

Invested

$174.99

Value

$175.01

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

merod<$100

Invested

$50.71

Value

$50.71

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

3222-4252 (7474)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$49.71

Value

$49.71

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

7143-9968 (17111)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

29736-26607 (56343)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.62

Record

18%

536-2517 (3053)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.57

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$3.86

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.22

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.94

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.