Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in November 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $293 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$293.2
-$4.54
91.5¢ → 90.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $98.53 | $98.85 | +$0.32 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $63.96 | $61.4 | -$2.2 | 55% 625-514 (1139) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $46.55 | $44.93 | -$1.63 | 12% 25-176 (201) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $38.32 | $38.4 | +$0.09 | 66% 4131-2159 (6290) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $36.6 | $35.94 | -$0.66 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $9.71 | $9.18 | -$0.53 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $4.42 | $4.49 | +$0.07 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$98.53
Value
$98.85
PnL
+$0.32
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$63.96
Value
$61.4
PnL
-$2.2
Record
55%
625-514 (1139)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$46.55
Value
$44.93
PnL
-$1.63
Record
12%
25-176 (201)
Invested
$38.32
Value
$38.4
PnL
+$0.09
Record
66%
4131-2159 (6290)
Invested
$36.6
Value
$35.94
PnL
-$0.66
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
Invested
$9.71
Value
$9.18
PnL
-$0.53
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$4.42
Value
$4.49
PnL
+$0.07
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.