Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in November 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $75 held · ends Dec 1

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$74.84

Combined PnL

-$3.54

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$73.89

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$2.4

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.95

Total Shares58

Combined PnL-$1.13

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.67	$29.51	-$0.16	34% 263-518 (781)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$90.38	$18.32	-$1.25	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$12.67	$12.67	-$0.01	74% 42-15 (57)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$39.86	$10.05	-$0.46	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$40.7	$3.34	-$0.52	52% 1637-1538 (3175)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.81	$0.51	-$0.24	12% 20-144 (164)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$1.77	$0.3	-$0.85	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.11	$0.08	-$0.03	26% 548-1574 (2122)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.07	$0.05	-$0.02	39% 3600-5658 (9258)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.67

Value

$29.51

PnL

-$0.16

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$90.38

Value

$18.32

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$12.67

Value

$12.67

PnL

-$0.01

Record

74%

42-15 (57)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$39.86

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$0.46

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$40.7

Value

$3.34

PnL

-$0.52

Record

52%

1637-1538 (3175)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.24

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.85

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.