Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 22¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$206.15
$24.96
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $136.18 | $130.89 | -$3.61 | 16% 417-2210 (2627) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.8¢ | $98.55 | $98.83 | +$0.31 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $35.97 | $32.05 | -$3.92 | |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $46.52 | $63.78 | +$18.57 | 64% 2428-1350 (3778) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $28.03 | $6.59 | +$2.1 | 72% 12558-4969 (17527) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $17.01 | $4.89 | +$4.28 | 35% 17316-32015 (49331) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$136.18
Value
$130.89
PnL
-$3.61
Record
16%
417-2210 (2627)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.52
Value
$63.78
PnL
+$18.57
Record
64%
2428-1350 (3778)
Invested
$28.03
Value
$6.59
PnL
+$2.1
Record
72%
12558-4969 (17527)
Invested
$17.01
Value
$4.89
PnL
+$4.28
Record
35%
17316-32015 (49331)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.