Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 75%
$5.4K
$8.07
99.7¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
36h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ON onekey02 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$7.57 | 98% 428-10 (438) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.1¢ | $182.06 | $183.56 | +$1.58 | 53% 22623-19873 (42496) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.8¢ | $192.43 | $84.83 | -$3.97 | 42% 3178-4309 (7487) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $59.62 | $50.43 | -$9.19 | 18% 4279-20045 (24324) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 98¢ | $305.54 | $27.37 | +$1.8 | 58% 19455-14308 (33763) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.9¢ | $126.72 | $16.78 | +$11.32 | 53% 29253-26162 (55415) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.69 | $0.11 | -$0.59 | 72% 13948-5333 (19281) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $2.98 | $0.03 | -$0.44 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
Invested
$5,030.2
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$7.57
Record
98%
428-10 (438)
Invested
$182.06
Value
$183.56
PnL
+$1.58
Record
53%
22623-19873 (42496)
Invested
$192.43
Value
$84.83
PnL
-$3.97
Record
42%
3178-4309 (7487)
2B9S<$100Invested
$59.62
Value
$50.43
PnL
-$9.19
Record
18%
4279-20045 (24324)
Invested
$305.54
Value
$27.37
PnL
+$1.8
Record
58%
19455-14308 (33763)
balthazarInvested
$126.72
Value
$16.78
PnL
+$11.32
Record
53%
29253-26162 (55415)
Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.59
Record
72%
13948-5333 (19281)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.44
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.