Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
11
No 55%
$1.2K
-$5.24
96.4¢ → 98¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 97.1¢ | $1.1K | $596.27 | +$16.97 | 64% 2442-1372 (3814) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 95.1¢ | $217.87 | $224.73 | +$6.86 | 54% 22041-19146 (41187) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 96.7¢ | $167.32 | $119.09 | +$0.13 | 60% 11493-7614 (19107) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $84.17 | $84.06 | -$0.11 | 43% 2145-2794 (4939) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 94.8¢ | $308.52 | $77.46 | +$3.08 | 58% 18645-13742 (32387) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $32.32 | $18.5 | -$13.82 | 17% 4208-19852 (24060) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $15.49 | $16.2 | +$0.71 | 30% 2124-4928 (7052) |
DD dddtripsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $16.23 | $7.08 | -$14.31 | 36% 607-1101 (1708) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $6.34 | $6.68 | +$0.34 | 35% 17577-32882 (50459) |
EL ElonSimpCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $607.59 | $4.69 | -$0.11 | 33% 215-446 (661) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $9.11 | $3.6 | -$4.99 | 17% 1066-5342 (6408) |
Invested
$1,050.53
Value
$596.27
PnL
+$16.97
Record
64%
2442-1372 (3814)
Invested
$217.87
Value
$224.73
PnL
+$6.86
Record
54%
22041-19146 (41187)
Invested
$167.32
Value
$119.09
PnL
+$0.13
Record
60%
11493-7614 (19107)
Invested
$84.17
Value
$84.06
PnL
-$0.11
Record
43%
2145-2794 (4939)
Invested
$308.52
Value
$77.46
PnL
+$3.08
Record
58%
18645-13742 (32387)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$32.32
Value
$18.5
PnL
-$13.82
Record
17%
4208-19852 (24060)
Invested
$15.49
Value
$16.2
PnL
+$0.71
Record
30%
2124-4928 (7052)
Invested
$16.23
Value
$7.08
PnL
-$14.31
Record
36%
607-1101 (1708)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$6.68
PnL
+$0.34
Record
35%
17577-32882 (50459)
Invested
$607.59
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$0.11
Record
33%
215-446 (661)
Invested
$9.11
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$4.99
Record
17%
1066-5342 (6408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.