Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 17 to November 24, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $140 held · ends Nov 24
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$139.53
$12.81
98.3¢ → 98.3¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $82.25 | $82.25 | +$0 | 53% 7473-6603 (14076) |
HI hixlzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $23.1 | $36.75 | +$13.65 | 6% 2-34 (36) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $14.79 | $14.75 | -$0.04 | 33% 83-166 (249) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $4.92 | $4.92 | +$0 | 67% 49-24 (73) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.67 | $0.88 | -$0.79 | 19% 22-95 (117) |
Invested
$82.25
Value
$82.25
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7473-6603 (14076)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$36.75
PnL
+$13.65
Record
6%
2-34 (36)
Invested
$14.79
Value
$14.75
PnL
-$0.04
Record
33%
83-166 (249)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.92
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
49-24 (73)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$0.79
Record
19%
22-95 (117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.