Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 100¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
No
11
No 55%
$175.37
-$57.21
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.94 | -$0.02 | 31% 1057-2405 (3462) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.94 | -$0.02 | 36% 263-468 (731) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.94 | -$0.02 | 35% 290-535 (825) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 34% 238-461 (699) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.97 | -$0.01 | 42% 1635-2289 (3924) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $5 | +$0 | 27% 1031-2734 (3765) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $104.61 | $0.4 | -$33.77 | 35% 3807-6929 (10736) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $9 | $0.09 | -$8.91 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $52.4 | $0.07 | -$9.42 | 42% 2632-3664 (6296) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.9 | $0.05 | -$4.85 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.2 | $0 | -$0.2 | 13% 22-150 (172) |
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.94
PnL
-$0.02
Record
31%
1057-2405 (3462)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.94
PnL
-$0.02
Record
36%
263-468 (731)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.94
PnL
-$0.02
Record
35%
290-535 (825)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
238-461 (699)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
42%
1635-2289 (3924)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
1031-2734 (3765)
LucerysCTRInvested
$104.61
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$33.77
Record
35%
3807-6929 (10736)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$8.91
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
Invested
$52.4
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$9.42
Record
42%
2632-3664 (6296)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.85
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.2
Record
13%
22-150 (172)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.