Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $359 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$358.75

Combined PnL

-$21.61

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$358.55

Total Shares359

Combined PnL-$2.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares189

Combined PnL-$18.67

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.9¢	$173.73	$143.77	-$2.97	36% 263-468 (731)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.92	+$0	29% 1113-2674 (3787)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.9	$79.92	+$0.02	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.96	+$0	31% 1057-2405 (3462)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.99	+$0.01	27% 1031-2734 (3765)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	34% 238-461 (699)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$9	$0.09	-$8.91	43% 5103-6732 (11835)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4.9	$0.05	-$4.85	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4.77	$0.05	-$4.72	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.2	$0	-$0.2	13% 22-150 (172)

god83743894

Invested

$173.73

Value

$143.77

PnL

-$2.97

Record

36%

263-468 (731)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

1113-2674 (3787)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.9

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

1057-2405 (3462)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

27%

1031-2734 (3765)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

238-461 (699)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.91

Record

43%

5103-6732 (11835)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.9

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.85

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.77

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.72

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

13%

22-150 (172)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.