Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $535 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$535.15

Combined PnL

-$9.3

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$534.9

Total Shares538

Combined PnL-$4.58

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.25

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$4.72

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.5¢	$159.26	$159.2	-$0.06	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 99.3¢	$125.71	$125.95	+$0.23	78% 36-10 (46)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$79.6	$79.6	+$0	34% 238-461 (699)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$59.71	$59.71	+$0	24% 39-122 (161)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.8	$39.8	-$0	42% 1635-2289 (3924)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.82	$39.8	-$0.02	29% 1113-2674 (3787)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.85	$29.82	-$0.03	31% 1057-2405 (3462)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$49.8	$1.02	-$4.7	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4.77	$0.24	-$4.53	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.2	$0.01	-$0.19	13% 22-150 (172)

cigarettes

Invested

$159.26

Value

$159.2

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

bipbipbop

Invested

$125.71

Value

$125.95

PnL

+$0.23

Record

78%

36-10 (46)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$79.6

Value

$79.6

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

238-461 (699)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$59.71

Value

$59.71

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

39-122 (161)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$39.8

Value

$39.8

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1635-2289 (3924)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$39.82

Value

$39.8

PnL

-$0.02

Record

29%

1113-2674 (3787)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.85

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

31%

1057-2405 (3462)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$49.8

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$4.7

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.77

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$4.53

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.19

Record

13%

22-150 (172)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.