Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 98¢ · $974 held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$973.55

Combined PnL

-$3.49

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 97.8¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$973.47

Total Shares996

Combined PnL-$3.34

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.15

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quiet-ferret	Noavg 97.8¢	$405.94	$381.62	+$0.12	15% 20-117 (137)
12 123987456	Noavg 98.7¢	$193.38	$191.3	-$2.08	29% 63-155 (218)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.9¢	$156.6	$156.56	-$0.04	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$88.19	$88	-$0.19	43% 1124-1475 (2599)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$78.52	$78.04	-$0.48	27% 1021-2713 (3734)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$39.12	$39.16	+$0.04	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$29.25	$24.4	-$0.35	30% 243-580 (823)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$9.88	$9.79	-$0.09	30% 1043-2405 (3448)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.88	$4.61	-$0.27	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.2	$0.05	-$0.15	13% 22-150 (172)

quiet-ferret

Invested

$405.94

Value

$381.62

PnL

+$0.12

Record

15%

20-117 (137)

123987456

Invested

$193.38

Value

$191.3

PnL

-$2.08

Record

29%

63-155 (218)

cigarettes

Invested

$156.6

Value

$156.56

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$88.19

Value

$88

PnL

-$0.19

Record

43%

1124-1475 (2599)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$78.52

Value

$78.04

PnL

-$0.48

Record

27%

1021-2713 (3734)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$39.12

Value

$39.16

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.25

Value

$24.4

PnL

-$0.35

Record

30%

243-580 (823)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.09

Record

30%

1043-2405 (3448)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$0.27

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

13%

22-150 (172)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.