Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $420 held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$420.02

Combined PnL

-$5

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 97.2¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$412.69

Total Shares425

Combined PnL-$3.01

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.32

Total Shares272

Combined PnL-$1.99

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.5¢	$154.36	$154.8	+$0.44	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$88.23	$88.18	-$0.05	43% 1124-1475 (2599)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$67.28	$67.94	+$0.66	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$39.08	$39.1	+$0.02	34% 234-460 (694)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$38.76	$38.72	-$0.04	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.75	$9.63	-$0.12	30% 243-580 (823)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$64.4	$9.63	-$3.92	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$10.61	$7.15	-$1.96	15% 20-117 (137)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.7	+$0	30% 1043-2405 (3448)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.2	$0.17	-$0.03	13% 22-150 (172)

cigarettes

Invested

$154.36

Value

$154.8

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$88.23

Value

$88.18

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

1124-1475 (2599)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$67.28

Value

$67.94

PnL

+$0.66

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$39.08

Value

$39.1

PnL

+$0.02

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$38.76

Value

$38.72

PnL

-$0.04

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$0.12

Record

30%

243-580 (823)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$64.4

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$3.92

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

quiet-ferretCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.61

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$1.96

Record

15%

20-117 (137)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

1043-2405 (3448)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.03

Record

13%

22-150 (172)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.