Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$53.17
-$30.68
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $38.15 | $38.18 | +$0.04 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $11.83 | $11.86 | +$0.02 | 74% 42-15 (57) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.37 | $2.75 | +$1.37 | 7% 2-26 (28) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $10.44 | $0.12 | -$9.94 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $9.87 | $0.1 | -$9.16 | 17% 8-40 (48) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $2.94 | $0.06 | -$2.69 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $7.4 | $0.06 | -$7.02 | 10% 15-130 (145) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $83.08 | $0.02 | -$3.07 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.25 | $0.01 | -$0.24 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
Invested
$38.15
Value
$38.18
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$11.83
Value
$11.86
PnL
+$0.02
Record
74%
42-15 (57)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$1.37
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$1.37
Record
7%
2-26 (28)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$10.44
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$9.94
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$9.87
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$9.16
Record
17%
8-40 (48)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$2.69
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$7.02
Record
10%
15-130 (145)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$83.08
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.07
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.24
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.