Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $373 held · ends Nov 20

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$373.09

Combined PnL

-$5.69

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$370.13

Total Shares374

Combined PnL-$0.85

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.86

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$4.84

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 99¢	$495.17	$296.85	-$0.95	78% 35-10 (45)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$37.9	$37.76	-$0.13	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$19.82	$19.74	-$0.08	29% 62-155 (217)
LinaBell🦊<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.55	$10.85	+$0.3	7% 2-26 (28)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$4.92	$4.94	+$0.02	74% 42-15 (57)
XZ xzsaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.23	$2.66	+$0.43	3% 1-33 (34)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$66.75	$0.13	-$0.95	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$72.45	$0.06	-$4.32	18% 853-3894 (4747)

bipbipbop

Invested

$495.17

Value

$296.85

PnL

-$0.95

Record

78%

35-10 (45)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.9

Value

$37.76

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

123987456<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$0.08

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

LinaBell🦊<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$10.85

PnL

+$0.3

Record

2-26 (28)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.02

Record

74%

42-15 (57)

xzsaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.43

Record

1-33 (34)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.75

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.95

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.45

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$4.32

Record

18%

853-3894 (4747)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.