Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $172 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 50%
$171.75
-$17.58
99.3¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LinaBell🦊 | Noavg 99¢ | $102.94 | $103.46 | +$0.52 | 7% 2-26 (28) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 33% 220-451 (671) |
BI bipbipbop<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $19.9 | +$0.02 | 78% 35-10 (45) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.24 | $18.25 | +$0.01 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $9.87 | $0.06 | -$9.63 | 17% 8-40 (48) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $3.33 | $0.05 | -$3.28 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $2.87 | $0.04 | -$2.82 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $67.29 | $0 | -$2.41 | 18% 853-3894 (4747) |
LinaBell🦊Invested
$102.94
Value
$103.46
PnL
+$0.52
Record
7%
2-26 (28)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
33%
220-451 (671)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0.02
Record
78%
35-10 (45)
Invested
$18.24
Value
$18.25
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$9.87
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$9.63
Record
17%
8-40 (48)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.33
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.28
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$2.87
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$2.82
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$67.29
Value
$0
PnL
-$2.41
Record
18%
853-3894 (4747)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.