Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 13¢ · $740 held · ends Nov 20

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$740.15

Combined PnL

$385.8

Smart Money Entry

4.3¢ → 12.5¢

+193% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$645.08

Total Shares5,376

Combined PnL+$389.9

No3 traders

Total Value$95.07

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$4.1

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ElonurmomCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$138.54	$498.76	+$360.22	— 3-10 (13)
BI bipbipbopCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$74.57	$104.5	+$34.89	81% 44-10 (54)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 88¢	$35.2	$35	-$0.2	42% 1715-2341 (4056)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$35.76	$33.67	-$2.1	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.2	$26.4	-$1.8	30% 1195-2736 (3931)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$15.03	$16.38	+$9.09	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$4.57	$12.31	+$7.74	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$66.72	$8.81	-$21.18	17% 859-4115 (4974)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$55.18	$4.32	-$0.86	16% 31-164 (195)

ElonurmomCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.54

Value

$498.76

PnL

+$360.22

Record

—

3-10 (13)

bipbipbopCTR

Yes

Invested

$74.57

Value

$104.5

PnL

+$34.89

Record

81%

44-10 (54)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

42%

1715-2341 (4056)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$35.76

Value

$33.67

PnL

-$2.1

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$26.4

PnL

-$1.8

Record

30%

1195-2736 (3931)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.03

Value

$16.38

PnL

+$9.09

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.57

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$7.74

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.72

Value

$8.81

PnL

-$21.18

Record

17%

859-4115 (4974)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.18

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0.86

Record

16%

31-164 (195)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.