Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$148.35

Combined PnL

-$24.93

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$148.12

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$0.32

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares153

Combined PnL-$25.25

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$79.68	$79.88	+$0.2	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.96	+$0.08	28% 1002-2590 (3592)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$24.14	$24.18	+$0.04	31% 141-318 (459)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$14.1	$14.1	+$0	24% 134-423 (557)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$6.43	$0.1	-$6.33	40% 3403-5074 (8477)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$5	$0.08	-$4.93	10% 9-79 (88)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$68.25	$0.04	-$8.71	46% 4905-5808 (10713)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$9.8	$0.01	-$5.28	18% 829-3702 (4531)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.68

Value

$79.88

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.96

PnL

+$0.08

Record

28%

1002-2590 (3592)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$24.14

Value

$24.18

PnL

+$0.04

Record

31%

141-318 (459)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$14.1

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

134-423 (557)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$6.33

Record

40%

3403-5074 (8477)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.93

Record

10%

9-79 (88)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.25

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.71

Record

46%

4905-5808 (10713)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.28

Record

18%

829-3702 (4531)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.