Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$350.77

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,169

Combined PnL+$1.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.46

Total Shares1,222

Combined PnL-$351.8

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.9¢	$259.74	$259.74	+$0	30% 993-2362 (3355)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 99.8¢	$254.49	$254.75	+$0.25	41% 1573-2277 (3850)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.8¢	$244.45	$244.76	+$0.31	29% 1063-2631 (3694)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.9¢	$179.84	$165.73	-$1.33	31% 225-501 (726)
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 99.2¢	$356.24	$159.05	+$1.41	85% 23-4 (27)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$45.44	$45.63	+$0.19	39% 186-294 (480)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.97	+$0.15	31% 190-428 (618)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.16	$9.21	+$0.05	27% 200-540 (740)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$175.79	$2.7	-$74.09	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$1.0K	$1.13	-$121.9	45% 4975-6198 (11173)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$160.07	$0.26	-$29.78	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$11.2	$0.2	-$10.75	26% 544-1530 (2074)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 7.2¢	$1.1K	$0.17	-$115.28	42% 2607-3596 (6203)

mildwindow27

Invested

$259.74

Value

$259.74

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

993-2362 (3355)

haveagoodday

Invested

$254.49

Value

$254.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

41%

1573-2277 (3850)

northdrawer

Invested

$244.45

Value

$244.76

PnL

+$0.31

Record

29%

1063-2631 (3694)

godblessme2026

Invested

$179.84

Value

$165.73

PnL

-$1.33

Record

31%

225-501 (726)

bipbipbop

Invested

$356.24

Value

$159.05

PnL

+$1.41

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$45.44

Value

$45.63

PnL

+$0.19

Record

39%

186-294 (480)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.15

Record

31%

190-428 (618)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.16

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$0.05

Record

27%

200-540 (740)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.79

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$74.09

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,011.43

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$121.9

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.07

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$29.78

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.2

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$10.75

Record

26%

544-1530 (2074)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,146.88

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$115.28

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.