Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 89%
$1.2K
$12.07
98.6¢ → 99.6¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.7¢ | $672.6 | $678.89 | +$6.29 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.5¢ | $161.97 | $163.81 | +$1.84 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.5¢ | $143.52 | $145.19 | +$1.67 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $50.95 | $51.82 | +$0.87 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $49.3 | $49.83 | +$0.53 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $41.15 | $41.58 | +$0.44 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $29.55 | $29.9 | +$0.35 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $29.45 | $29.9 | +$0.45 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.48 | $0.12 | -$0.36 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
Invested
$672.6
Value
$678.89
PnL
+$6.29
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
balthazarInvested
$161.97
Value
$163.81
PnL
+$1.84
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LucerysInvested
$143.52
Value
$145.19
PnL
+$1.67
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$50.95
Value
$51.82
PnL
+$0.87
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$49.3
Value
$49.83
PnL
+$0.53
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.15
Value
$41.58
PnL
+$0.44
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$29.55
Value
$29.9
PnL
+$0.35
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$29.45
Value
$29.9
PnL
+$0.45
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$0.36
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.