Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$1.1K
$25.04
95.6¢ → 98¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 96¢ | $654.09 | $666.96 | +$12.87 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
 balthazar | Noavg 95.3¢ | $156.62 | $160.94 | +$4.32 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 95.1¢ | $138.57 | $142.64 | +$4.07 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $77.9 | $80.28 | +$2.38 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $47.5 | $48.95 | +$1.45 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $39.64 | $40.85 | +$1.21 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.9 | +$0.15 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $2.34 | $0.93 | -$1.41 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
Invested
$654.09
Value
$666.96
PnL
+$12.87
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
balthazarInvested
$156.62
Value
$160.94
PnL
+$4.32
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LucerysInvested
$138.57
Value
$142.64
PnL
+$4.07
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$77.9
Value
$80.28
PnL
+$2.38
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$47.5
Value
$48.95
PnL
+$1.45
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$39.64
Value
$40.85
PnL
+$1.21
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$0.93
PnL
-$1.41
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.