Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
10
No 80%
$1.1K
$22.56
95.1¢ → 97¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 95.3¢ | $649.48 | $664.24 | +$14.76 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 94.9¢ | $138.29 | $142.06 | +$3.77 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $71.36 | $73.39 | +$2.03 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $47.5 | $48.75 | +$1.25 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $39.64 | $40.69 | +$1.04 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $29.25 | +$1.05 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $28.5 | $29.25 | +$0.75 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $20.68 | $21.45 | +$0.77 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $3.49 | $1.24 | -$1.59 | 54% 562-474 (1036) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $2.05 | $0.79 | -$1.26 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
Invested
$649.48
Value
$664.24
PnL
+$14.76
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
LucerysInvested
$138.29
Value
$142.06
PnL
+$3.77
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
balthazar<$100Invested
$71.36
Value
$73.39
PnL
+$2.03
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$47.5
Value
$48.75
PnL
+$1.25
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$39.64
Value
$40.69
PnL
+$1.04
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$29.25
PnL
+$1.05
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$28.5
Value
$29.25
PnL
+$0.75
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$20.68
Value
$21.45
PnL
+$0.77
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$3.49
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$1.59
Record
54%
562-474 (1036)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$1.26
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.