Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 89%
$1.5K
$59.29
91.1¢ → 95.8¢
+5% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Late
53h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 91.5¢ | $623.47 | $650.61 | +$27.15 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 90.5¢ | $207.4 | $206 | +$7.68 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
 balthazar | Noavg 91.2¢ | $149.95 | $157 | +$7.05 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 91¢ | $132.59 | $139.14 | +$6.56 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 90.4¢ | $130.41 | $133.44 | +$3.04 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $74.62 | $78.31 | +$3.69 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $45.5 | $47.75 | +$2.25 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $37.97 | $39.85 | +$1.88 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.71 | $1.71 | +$0 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
Invested
$623.47
Value
$650.61
PnL
+$27.15
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$207.4
Value
$206
PnL
+$7.68
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
balthazarInvested
$149.95
Value
$157
PnL
+$7.05
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
LucerysInvested
$132.59
Value
$139.14
PnL
+$6.56
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
LornaPredictsInvested
$130.41
Value
$133.44
PnL
+$3.04
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
Invested
$74.62
Value
$78.31
PnL
+$3.69
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$47.75
PnL
+$2.25
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$37.97
Value
$39.85
PnL
+$1.88
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$1.71
Value
$1.71
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.