Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$43.27

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 93.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,484

Combined PnL+$49.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13.27

Total Shares166

Combined PnL-$5.81

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 89.2¢	$607.74	$630.17	+$22.44	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 89.2¢	$335.24	$345.06	+$9.81	3% 1-31 (32)
Lucerys	Noavg 88.3¢	$128.67	$134.77	+$6.1	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
balthazar	Noavg 88.3¢	$101.07	$105.82	+$4.75	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 88¢	$72.16	$75.85	+$3.69	27% 104-283 (387)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 90¢	$45	$46.25	+$1.25	28% 522-1370 (1892)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 90¢	$37.56	$38.6	+$1.04	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$15.56	$10.71	-$4.85	12% 21-154 (175)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$3.52	$2.56	-$0.96	41% 3116-4481 (7597)

cigarettes

Invested

$607.74

Value

$630.17

PnL

+$22.44

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

WarriorH

Invested

$335.24

Value

$345.06

PnL

+$9.81

Record

1-31 (32)

Lucerys

Invested

$128.67

Value

$134.77

PnL

+$6.1

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

balthazar

Invested

$101.07

Value

$105.82

PnL

+$4.75

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$72.16

Value

$75.85

PnL

+$3.69

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$46.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$37.56

Value

$38.6

PnL

+$1.04

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.56

Value

$10.71

PnL

-$4.85

Record

12%

21-154 (175)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.52

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$0.96

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.