Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
12
No 92%
$1.5K
$57.18
87.3¢ → 90.5¢
+4% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
83h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 87.7¢ | $597.22 | $619.96 | +$22.74 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 87.4¢ | $322.34 | $318.6 | +$10.94 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 86.3¢ | $192.8 | $203.39 | +$10.59 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $93.5 | $95.5 | +$2 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $72.94 | $76.81 | +$3.87 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $43 | $45.5 | +$2.5 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $35.89 | $37.97 | +$2.09 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.8 | $27.3 | +$1.5 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $26.7 | $27.3 | +$0.6 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $19.58 | $20.02 | +$0.44 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $4.62 | $4.94 | +$0.33 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $1.8 | -$0.4 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
Invested
$597.22
Value
$619.96
PnL
+$22.74
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
Invested
$322.34
Value
$318.6
PnL
+$10.94
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
LucerysInvested
$192.8
Value
$203.39
PnL
+$10.59
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$93.5
Value
$95.5
PnL
+$2
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
balthazar<$100Invested
$72.94
Value
$76.81
PnL
+$3.87
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$43
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$35.89
Value
$37.97
PnL
+$2.09
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$27.3
PnL
+$1.5
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$26.7
Value
$27.3
PnL
+$0.6
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$20.02
PnL
+$0.44
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$0.33
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.4
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.