Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.47

Combined PnL

-$95.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$1.47

Total Shares2,942

Combined PnL-$95.83

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$23.28	$0.35	-$22.94	53% 6070-5437 (11507)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$16.67	$0.25	-$16.42	37% 397-679 (1076)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$12.91	$0.19	-$12.72	37% 3456-5935 (9391)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$10.47	$0.16	-$10.31	53% 900-794 (1694)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$10.62	$0.13	-$10.43	5% 4-72 (76)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$5.47	$0.08	-$5.39	47% 4815-5470 (10285)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$5	$0.08	-$4.93	0% 0-26 (26)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$4.91	$0.07	-$4.84	19% 816-3584 (4400)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.04	$0.04	+$0	40% 1474-2198 (3672)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$2.73	$0.04	-$2.69	26% 117-337 (454)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.67	$0.03	-$1.64	28% 532-1393 (1925)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.39	$0.02	-$1.37	44% 1109-1423 (2532)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.12	$0.02	-$1.1	12% 36-262 (298)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.07	$0.02	-$1.05	40% 3240-4885 (8125)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.28

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$22.94

Record

53%

6070-5437 (11507)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.67

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$16.42

Record

37%

397-679 (1076)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.91

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$12.72

Record

37%

3456-5935 (9391)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.47

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$10.31

Record

53%

900-794 (1694)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.62

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$10.43

Record

4-72 (76)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.47

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$5.39

Record

47%

4815-5470 (10285)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.93

Record

0-26 (26)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.91

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.84

Record

19%

816-3584 (4400)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1474-2198 (3672)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.69

Record

26%

117-337 (454)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.64

Record

28%

532-1393 (1925)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.37

Record

44%

1109-1423 (2532)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.1

Record

12%

36-262 (298)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.05

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.