Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$1.3K
-$48.98
98.5¢ → 95.2¢
-3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.5¢ | $670.75 | $645.84 | -$24.9 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 98.3¢ | $179.66 | $173.33 | -$6.33 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.6¢ | $150.52 | $144.78 | -$5.74 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.6¢ | $143.67 | $138.12 | -$5.55 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $81.02 | $77.74 | -$3.28 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $49.4 | $47.4 | -$2 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $41.23 | $39.56 | -$1.67 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $0.36 | $0.84 | +$0.48 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
Invested
$670.75
Value
$645.84
PnL
-$24.9
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$179.66
Value
$173.33
PnL
-$6.33
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
balthazarInvested
$150.52
Value
$144.78
PnL
-$5.74
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LucerysInvested
$143.67
Value
$138.12
PnL
-$5.55
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$81.02
Value
$77.74
PnL
-$3.28
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$49.4
Value
$47.4
PnL
-$2
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.23
Value
$39.56
PnL
-$1.67
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.84
PnL
+$0.48
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.