Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$1.2K
$1.95
99.6¢ → 99¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.6¢ | $658.3 | $654.66 | -$3.65 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $163.8 | $162.75 | -$1.05 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $145.21 | $144.24 | -$0.97 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $81.75 | $81.18 | -$0.57 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.5 | -$0.35 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $41.6 | $41.31 | -$0.29 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $3.33 | $12.22 | +$8.89 | — 0-9 (9) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $10.96 | $10.9 | -$0.06 | 54% 562-474 (1036) |
Invested
$658.3
Value
$654.66
PnL
-$3.65
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
balthazarInvested
$163.8
Value
$162.75
PnL
-$1.05
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LucerysInvested
$145.21
Value
$144.24
PnL
-$0.97
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$81.75
Value
$81.18
PnL
-$0.57
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$0.35
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$41.6
Value
$41.31
PnL
-$0.29
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$3.33
Value
$12.22
PnL
+$8.89
Record
—
0-9 (9)
Invested
$10.96
Value
$10.9
PnL
-$0.06
Record
54%
562-474 (1036)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.